The Backroom Brief https://briefsroom.com/ A daily markets paper on crypto, rates, energy, equities and geopolitics. en The breakeven fell on the day the Fed hiked, and that is the whole story https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/17/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/17/ Thu, 17 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point to 3.75 to 4.00 percent on Wednesday, twelve votes to none, per the FOMC statement. It is the first increase since July 2023 and Kevin Warsh's first as chair. The dealers ate a sixth of the 20-year, and the inversion got worse https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/16/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/16/ Wed, 16 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The Treasury sold 13 billion dollars of 20-year bonds on Tuesday and the dealers were left holding 16.74 percent of it, against 10.93 percent when the same bond was first sold in August. The auction stopped at 5.420 percent, two basis points above where the 20-year traded at the close. Five Percent, Priced at the Front https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/15/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/15/ Tue, 15 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The US 10-year Treasury yield traded at 5.033 percent in the European morning on Tuesday, 7.2 basis points above Monday's close and higher than on any day since July 2007. Monday only brushed the line: the yield touched 5.012 percent intraday, its first print above 5 since 2023, and closed at 4.97 on Treasury's own par curve. One Shock Made of Barrels, One Made of Promises https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/14/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/14/ Mon, 14 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 SoftBank Group closed Tokyo's session 10.72 percent lower at 5,839 yen, and at its worst it was down 13.18 percent, after the chief executive of Anthropic published a post on Saturday arguing that "we must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models". The Only Thing Left Arguing Is the Physical Barrel https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/13/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/13/ Sun, 13 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Four central banks will have set policy inside nine days by the time Friday closes, and three of them are tightening into the same supply shock. The War Started Being a Rates Story https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/10/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/10/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Brent settled Thursday at $108.19, up 6.90 percent, after Iran attacked ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz in reply to the American destruction of five Iranian tankers off Kharg Island. The Tripwire Missed by Eight Cents, and the War Paid Anyway https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/09/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/09/ Wed, 09 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Brent settled Tuesday at $97.92, eight cents short of the 98 line this desk has now missed by less than a dime twice in three sessions, with OVX closing 48.59 against the 50 leg. That was the middle case the desk named in advance on Monday, held and unresolved, and it survived exactly one session. They Hit the Refinery Hours After the Tape Went Quiet https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/07/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/07/ Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Saudi Arabia's 400,000 barrel per day Jizan refinery was hit in fresh strikes late Monday morning, first reported by the Financial Times and attributed by OilPrice to an escalating Houthi campaign, with Aramco still assessing the damage per investingLive. They Shot at the Oil Itself, and the Open Markets Shrugged https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/06/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/06/ Sun, 06 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The war stopped shooting past the oil and started shooting at it. CENTCOM says it destroyed three IRGC-linked tankers on Saturday, one disabled off Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, one off Jask, one sunk in the Gulf of Oman, after Iranian missiles targeted two US Navy warships. The War Reached the Export Terminal https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/05/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/05/ Sat, 05 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Explosions were heard near Kharg Island on Saturday morning, Iran's main oil-loading terminal, with Fars calling the origin unknown per Reuters and Anadolu carrying a report of a US missile striking an Iranian tanker there; Iran International's live wire framed Washington as seeing risk of a major escalation. The Un-Pricing Lasted Thirty Hours https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/04/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/04/ Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 August payrolls printed 162,000 against a 53,000 to 56,000 consensus this morning, New York time, with July's minus 23,000 revised away to plus 21,000 and June lifted from 20,000 to 31,000, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Yen Did the Tightening https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/03/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/03/ Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 The Bank of Japan has not moved, and the yen has already done the work. The Front End Went Global https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/02/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/02/ Wed, 02 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Japan's two-year yield rose 5.3 basis points to 1.863 percent after Governor Ueda told reporters that a rate rise is "on the table at every meeting, including this month's," per Nikkei Asia; the German two-year added 3.5 basis points to 2.98 percent by midday Frankfurt, per Investing.com. The Calm Was Marked to Market https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/01/ https://briefsroom.com/2026/09/01/ Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 +0000 Three of the four fear gauges this desk watched fall on Friday rose on Tuesday, and the fourth, the one that had risen alone, rose the most. VVIX, the cost of hedging the hedge, closed at 91.25 from 86.29 per CBOE's daily series.